My Promised Land: The Triumph and Tragedy of Israel

Shavit noticed Iran as a threat to Israel in 2002, during the second intifada. The United States was preparing to invade Iraq, but Shavit believed Iran was the real threat to world order. He laments that for most of a decade, his warnings were ignored. He warns that a nuclear-capable Iran will cause nuclear globalization that will eliminate nuclear non-proliferation, lead to the destruction of Israel, and establish Iran as the dominant power in the Middle East—turning the region against the West. If Iran gains nuclear weapons capability, it will force Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey to do so as well, surrounding Israel with nuclear powers that seek its destruction.

After its failures in Iraq and Afghanistan, the United States was not eager to enter a conflict with Iran; neither were other Western powers. As President Obama assumed office, a nuclear Iran was a distant possibility, not a pressing matter, so the United States procrastinated. Israel, too, chose to focus on more immediate concerns. Twice in Israel’s history, it prevented neighboring states from obtaining nuclear weapons. In 1981 an Israeli pilot bombed an Iraqi facility in Baghdad, and in 2007 Israeli planes bombed a Syrian facility. Preventing Iran is more difficult, though.