Why We're Polarized

Klein notes that the US is changing quickly. In 2030, immigration will outpace new births. By 2045, non-Hispanic white people will no longer be a majority. As Hillary Clinton’s presidential nomination in 2016 attested, gender dynamics are also changing. Furthermore, in 2018, for the first time, those with no religion were the largest group in the General Social Survey. White Americans, feeling their dominance slipping away, have strengthened their group identity. The reaction to these changes is bifurcated between those who express hope, as Obama did, and those who see change as threatening, as Trump does.

Klein cites researchers who have found that the fear of losing majority status has changed the political behavior of white people in America. Even “gentle, incidental exposure to reminders that America is diversifying” causes white people to adopt more conservative positions and to support the Republican Party (108). Obama became a symbol of diversification to conservatives, which caused party identification to be more divided by race. In 2012, Obama won only 39% of the white vote, a smaller share than Michael Dukakis in 1988 when he lost to a Republican. Given changing demographics in 2012, Obama was able to defeat the Republican nominee with a diverse coalition.